When it comes to Hong Kong, does Germany’s elections bring change?
Could Germany’s deadlocked election results point the path to a new German-China policy and with it renewed energy from German parliamentarians to stand with Hong Kong? This is the question on the minds of many activists who have dedicated much of their time in recent years to the cause of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong.
Historically, Germany has done much to stand with the people of Hong Kong. When Hong Kong Watch was first started out in 2017, we found enthusiastic supporters in the corridors of the Federal Foreign Office and within the Bundestag. It was Germany and not the UK, which in May 2018 offered political asylum to two pro-democracy activists from Hong Kong.
At the height of the anti-Extradition Bill protest movement in 2019, Members of Parliament from all parties met regularly with delegations of Hong Kong pro-democracy activists and invited Hong Kong Watch to host events in the Bundestag to discuss human rights developments. A group of German lawmakers that summer urged Angela Merkel to use the G20 to defend Hong Kong’s autonomy, while members of the Bundestag Human Rights Committee call for the withdrawal of the Extradition Bill.
In October 2019, Hong Kong Watch worked with three German lawmakers: Dr Danyal Bayaz (Green), Mr Eckhard Gnodtke (CDU), and Ms Gyde Jensen (FDP) to launch the Parliamentarians Protect Parliamentarians” programme to offer international solidarity to disqualified lawmakers in Hong Kong.
These actions and the parliamentarians behind them paved the way for the forging of an international coalition of over 900 lawmakers in the Summer of 2020 to stand with the people of Hong Kong and condemn the National Security Law. One of the largest international statements of its kind.
They include Margarete Bause MP, Martin Patzelt MP, Danyal Bayaz MP, Gyde Jensen MP, and Eckhard Gnodtke MP. Aside from Gyde Jensen MP, all of those Members of Parliament will sadly not be returning to the Bundestag following the Federal Election. The Bundestag and the important debate that now takes place over Germany’s future relationship with China, will be poorer without them.
This week’s election results, which mark the first German Federal Election where Angela Merkel has not led the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in sixteen years, points to a deadlock between the CDU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), with the SPD leading with 25.7% of the vote to the CDU’s 24.1%.
This leaves both the Greens (who won 14.8 %) and the FDP (who won 11.5%) with substantial power as they will likely be kingmakers, entering into coalition talks and deciding the makeup of the next government.
Both parties have taken strong positions in their manifestos against China’s dismantling of Hong Kong’s autonomy and for a re-assessment of Germany’s approach to China. In the case of the Greens, they have also called for substantial amendments to the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) before supporting any ratification. Therefore, it is safe to assume that if either party were a part of the new government in Germany there may be a tougher approach towards the Chinese Communist Party.
What does these results mean for Hong Kong?
First, the increase in the number of seats the Greens, FDP, and SPD hold will hopefully lead to a larger number of parliamentarians within the Bundestag willing to speak out on the human rights crisis in Hong Kong.
Second, the potential for an SPD/FDP/Green coalition could finally see Germany follow the likes of the UK, Canada, and Australia, and offer a bespoke lifeboat scheme for Hong Kongers.
Third, a new Chancellor dependent on smaller parties to stay in power may decide to extend the freeze on ratification of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment or bin the agreement all together.
One fact, however, remains certain. Irrespective of which parties enter into government, Germany’s approach to China is in desperate need of a change.
Sam Goodman, Hong Kong Watch’s Senior Policy Advisor